To develop a simulation model projecting the effect of tobacco control policies in the Netherlands on smoking
prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
Design, setting and participants
Netherlands SimSmoke—an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy—uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Netherlands to predict the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free legislation, mass media, advertising bans, health warnings, cessation treatment and youth access policies.
Outcome measures were smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
With a comprehensive set of policies,as recommended by MPOWER, smoking prevalence can be decreased by asmuch as 21% in the first year, increasing to a 35% reduction in the next 20 years and almost 40% by 30 years. By 2040, 7706 deaths can be averted in that year alone with the stronger set of policies. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost a million lives will be lost to tobacco-related diseases between 2011 and 2040. Of those, 145 000 can be saved with a comprehensive tobacco control package.
Smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the Netherlands can be reduced substantially through tax increases, smoke-free legislation, high-intensity media campaigns, stronger advertising bans and health warnings, comprehensive cessation treatment and youth access laws. The implementation of these FCTC/MPOWER recommended policies could be expected to show similar or even larger relative reductions in
smoking prevalence in other countries which currently have weak policies.