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Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: An application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel
Publication Source

Israel Journal of Health Policy Research

Journal article
Metadata
Region
Europe
Economy status
High-income economies
Abstract

Background
The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) established the MPOWER policy package to provide practical country-level guidance on implementing effective policies to reduce smoking rates. The Abridged SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is applied to Israel to estimate the effects on reducing smoking-attributable mortality resulting from full implementation of MPOWER policies.

Methods
Smoking prevalence from the 2014 Israel National Health Interview Survey 3 and population data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate the number of current smokers. The status of current Israeli policy was determined using information from MPOWER 2015 and from local sources. Based on existing knowledge that between 50 % and 65 % of smokers will die prematurely from smoking, the model is used to determine mortality reductions among current smokers from full implementation of MPOWER policies.

Results
We estimate that between 550 and 710 thousand smokers of the current 1.1 million Israeli smokers will prematurely die due to smoking. Within 40 years, complete implementation of MPOWER policies is projected to
reduce smoking prevalence among current smokers by 34 % and avert between 188 and 245 thousand deaths
among current smokers. Taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and media campaigns each reduce
smoking by about 5 % within 5 years. Improved cessation treatment and health warnings each have smaller
effects in the next five years, but their effects grow rapidly over time.

Conclusions
Israel Abridged SimSmoke shows that complete implementation of the MPOWER strategies has the potential to substantially reduce smoking prevalence, and avert premature deaths due to smoking. Additional benefits are also expected from reduced morbidity, reduced initiation among nonsmokers, and reduction in exposure of nonsmokers to tobacco smoke.